Green Light to 3rd Runway   1 February 2009

In his announcement to Parliament on 15th January Transport Secretary Geoff Hoon gave the green light to BAA to draw up detailed plans for a 3rd runway at Heathrow. But that is all he did. It is not a final go-ahead for a new runway and 6th terminal. BAA has acknowledged that it will take at least two years before final permission could be given (see timetable below)

With Conditions
Geoff Hoon imposed a number of conditions.

What, in a very confused statement to Parliament, he called “additional capacity” will only be allowed if the EU legal limits on air pollution and the Government’s own limits on noise are not breached. If they are, the Civil Aviation Authority and the Environment Agency will be given powers to “take action.”

The number of planes using the new runway would be limited to 125,000 a year, rather than the 220,000 originally envisaged, to allow the Climate Committee to assess the impact on CO2 emissions. Only if the Committee were satisfied that the emissions would not be excessive and that cleaner planes would come in use would BAA be allowed to go to 220,000.

In our view: the conditions are broken promises in the making
The conditions are meaningless. Is Geoff Hoon really saying the Government would step in and prevent BAA using just over half the capacity of the new runway if the environmental conditions turn out not to be right? If so, how would he do it? And would any business invest in a runway knowing the Government could block it making full use of its valuable asset? Or has Geoff Hoon just added these conditions to keep the Cabinet dissenters happy? Broken promises, we suspect, before he even uttered the words.

Mixed-Mode Dropped
Geoff Hoon announced that the plans to introduce mixed-mode have been dropped. This means that residents in West London will still enjoy a half day’s break from the noise as landing aircraft will continue to switch runways at 3pm. Hoon said that mixed-mode was dropped for the benefit of the residents. Certainly HACAN and other groups campaigned hard on mixed-mode, but it could as easily have been dropped because NATS (National Air Traffic Control) said it would not be safe to introduce without several years’ work.

Cranford Agreement to go
The 50 year old Cranford Agreement will be abolished. It prevents flights taking off from the northern runway over Cranford. The Government has decided to get rid of it in order to allow for the introduction of runway alternation when planes land over Berkshire. This will bring some relief to Windsor but will mean aircraft landing over Old Windsor and Wraysbury on a regular basis for the first time. The Cranford Agreement is independent of a 3rd runway. At the time of writing it is not clear when it might be scrapped.

The Timetable

The timetable for a 3rd runway is not at all clear but there are a number of things which need to take place:

• BAA has to draw up detailed plans for a 3rd runway and 6th terminal as well as any associated access roads. This is quite a lengthy process as BAA is required by law to carry out both an Environmental Impact Assessment Study and a Health Impact Assessment. It would be a big surprise if BAA had the plans ready within a year, particularly in light of the fact it will be busy with the Public Inquiry into the 2nd runway at Stansted which starts in April and is predicted to last 12-18 months.

• Those detailed plans would need to go out to public consultation before being heard at a Public Inquiry. Recent planning legislation limits the length of public inquiries but it would be a surprise if an inquiry into a project of this scale lasted less than 6 months.

• Given that the last date for a General Election is June 2010, it will be the next Government that will take the final decision on Heathrow. There are reports that BAA may try to force the hand of the next Government by offering to buy homes in Sipson and Harmondsworth and the surrounding area at higher prices, but it would be surprising if people were tempted to sell given the real chance the runway will not be built.


Other news: